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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2021-07-24T00:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-07-24T00:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/17370/-1
CME Note: Visible to the east in SOHO LASCO/C2 and C3; halo in STEREO A COR2. Associated with eruption from AR 12849 (S18E47), visible in SDO AIA 171/193/304 beginning 2021-07-23T23:42Z, and associated with C4.3 flare beginning 2021-07-23T23:54Z. From Lan Jian: no clear features of iCME arrival found on 07-26 to 07-28 (stream interface seen at ~2021-07-28T04:50Z).
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-07-27T08:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/17378/1
Model Inputs:
2021-07-24T00:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-46.0, Lat.=-3.0, Speed=600.0, HalfAngle=39.0, Time21.5=2021-07-24T05:53Z
2021-07-23T21:36:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-78.0, Lat.=-8.0, Speed=514.0, HalfAngle=18.0, Time21.5=2021-07-24T07:17Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2021-07-27T08:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-07-26T20:40Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-07-27T02:20Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210724_055300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210724_055300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210724_055300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210724_055300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210724_055300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210724_055300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210724_055300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210724_055300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210724_055300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210724_055300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210724_055300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210724_055300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210724_055300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210724_055300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210724_055300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20210724_055300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 65.92 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Robert Loper (M2M Office) on 2021-07-24T14:05Z

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